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What effect the “robocall”? Mississauga Ward 6 percentages showing support for Mayor Hazel McCallion, Carolyn Parrish and Ron Starr by polling stations

November 21st, 2010  

Over the last few days we’ve taken the City of Mississauga’s PDF file of the official election results and converted them into a spreadsheet. On November 17th we reported the most preliminary of preliminary findings in the Blog, “Mississauga News quotes Councillors: VOTERS’ LIST WAS A “MESS”. Why didn’t the City check its own Official Election Results?!” That Blog provided insight into how Hazel McCallion’s 107,643 votes were distributed both by ward and polling stations. These data however don’t necessarily show support for McCallion because it was possible for her to receive the highest number of votes in a polling station where she only got 40-50% of Mayor’s ballots cast—a plurality, in other words.

Our November 18th Blog, “Spreadsheet into percentage of Hazel McCallion’s votes by Mississauga polling stations provides unique insights” presented McCallion’s support by polling station based on the simple equation “Votes for Hazel McCallion” divided by “Total Ballots Cast for Mayor”.  Example. There are 10 ballets cast for Mayor. 8 were for Hazel McCallion. 8/10 or 80% support at that polling station.

Our November 19th Blog, “Mississauga Ward 5 percentages showing support for incumbents Mayor Hazel McCallion and Councillor Eve Adams by polling stations” focused only on Ward 5 polling station results showing the percentage support for both incumbents Mayor Hazel McCallion and Councillor Eve Adams. We decided to report on Ward 5 first because Malton Community Centre is one of our primary Roots of Youth Violence research sites.

While my inclination was to present Wards 8, 3 and 7 first and in that order, we know most people would be more interested in the Ward 6 Carolyn Parrish/Ron Starr breakdown.

For context we also did the breakdown for Advanced Polls versus Voting Day to see if  Hazel McCallion’s robocall had any effect.  The stats for Hazel McCallion? Advanced Polls had her vote percentages at 75.34% and 77.08% on Voting Day or a difference in support of 1.74%—roughly the same. (Hazel McCallion won overall with 76.40%)

Now for the Ward 6 councillor-data. At the Advanced Polls, Carolyn Parrish received 851 out of 1,918 ballots cast for councillor or 44.37%. At the Advanced Polls Ron Starr received 901 out of 1,918 ballots cast for councillor or 46.98%.

On Voting Day, Carolyn Parrish received 5,621 votes out of 14,200 ballots cast for councillor or 39.58%—a drop of 4.79% . On Voting Day, Ron Starr received 7,460 votes out of 14,200 ballots cast for councillor or 54.54% a gain of  7.56%

In the Advanced Polls, there’s no doubt that Ron Starr was ahead 46.98% to 44.37% for Parrish. There’s a temptation to suggest that the robocall did what it was intended to do. But before we can draw that conclusion, we’d need to examine the patterns of support for Advanced Polls versus Voting Day percentages for all wards.

So. Here’s the latest spreadsheet. Ward 6. Reminder, these data are preliminary and should readers find errors we ‘d appreciate being advised.

Voter Support for Hazel McCallion (“HM”), Carolyn Parrish (“CP”) and Ron Starr (“RS”) according to polling station
NOTE: For context Hazel McCallion won with
76.40%. Ron Starr won with 51.78%.

                                   Total  Votes Votes                 Total
 Polling Location                 Ballots  for   for  Carolyn  Ron   Votes for   % for   % for   % for
                                    Cast   HM   Mayor PARRISH STARR Councillor     HM      CP      RS

0108 6 McBride Ave Public School    1198    942  1176    526    535    1175      80.10%  44.77%  45.53%
0109 6 Springfield Public School    1241    865  1221    438    713    1178      70.84%  37.18%  60.53%
0110 6 Queenston Drive Pub School    866    668   841    316    489     843      79.43%  37.49%  58.01%
0111 6 StDavid of Wales School      1614   1229  1576    514    969    1579      77.98%  32.55%  61.37%
0112 6 Edenrose Public School       1154    906  1125    465    611    1131      80.53%  41.11%  54.02%
0113 6 StBernadette School          1493   1101  1456    648    674    1450      75.62%  44.69%  46.48%
0114 6 Fallingbrook Middle School    946    678   934    395    426     921      72.59%  42.89%  46.25%
0115 6 StHerbert Catholic School    1079    847  1068    455    504    1048      79.31%  43.42%  48.09%
0116 6 St.Dunstan Catholic School    915    743   906    256    600     901      82.01%  28.41%  66.59%
0117 6 River Grove C.C.             1465   1116  1453    514    822    1435      76.81%  35.82%  57.28%
0118 6 Whitehorn Public School      1258    992  1246    538    586    1235      79.61%  43.56%  47.45%
0119 6 St.Valentine Catholic School 1301    912  1280    543    510    1267      71.25%  42.86%  40.25%
0120 6 Yee Hong Centre                43     32    37     10     16      27      86.49%  37.04%  59.26%
0121 6 Leisureworld-Streetsville      29     28    29      3      5      10      96.55%  30.00%  50.00%
0122 6 Advance Poll Day 1            151    111   149     51     86     148      74.50%  34.46%  58.11%
0123 6 Advance Poll Day 2             98     85    97     34     55      98      87.63%  34.69%  56.12%
0124 6 McBride Avenue PS-Day3        433    290   414    193    178     427      70.05%  45.20%  41.69%
0125 6 McBride Avenue PS-Day4        390    275   379    189    159     380      72.56%  49.74%  41.84%
0126 6 River Grove CC - Day 3        405    317   401    182    194     398      79.05%  45.73%  48.74%
0127 6 River Grove CC - Day 4        475    361   470    202    229     467      76.81%  43.25%  49.04%

For the record we provide this video, uploaded to YouTube on June 21, 2007. We submit it contained Councillor Carolyn Parrish’s greatest mistake. OF COURSE, the City of Mississauga is a Secret Society!


(Click here to go directly to the clip on YouTube)

Last, here’s the related article courtesy of the Mississauga News.

You can fight (at) city hall

Simmering tensions between Mississauga Mayor Hazel McCallion and newbie Councillor Carolyn Parrish erupted at council yesterday over who should maintain the city’s streetlights.

For 30 minutes, business ground to a halt and city staff appeared captivated by the exchange, sometimes dripping with sarcasm, that flew between the veteran politicians – one the longtime mayor of the GTA’s second-largest city, the other a former MP rumoured to have ambitions for her seat.

After a series of pointed questions by Parrish – on questions she’d submitted earlier that became the subject of a staff report – the mayor decided she’d had enough.

McCallion told Parrish that just wasn’t the way business was done at Mississauga City Hall, where tradition is that councillors ask staff questions about reports before council meetings, not during.

“Let me advise you, Councillor Parrish, there’s a process around here that we follow,” McCallion lectured, describing how at 8 a.m. that very morning she had met with senior staff about the report on the city’s hydro utility, Enersource.

“I got the answers, therefore I don’t have to ask them at council,” McCallion said.

Parrish responded that she wanted fellow councillors to understand the issues, which brought a retort that they could do their own homework.

That drew a muted response from Parrish at first, but 25 minutes later, after she’d had ample time to mull over the mayor’s rebuke, she let rip with her own.

“We represent the city, we don’t represent ourselves,” Parrish said.

“So if I ask questions in open session on (cable) television, I have a right to do so,” she said, noting that having worked at various levels of government, she was used to asking questions in various forums.

“And if I don’t like the answers (given privately), I will ask them again in public. Even if I do like the answers, I will ask them again in public. This isn’t a secret society.”

That ratcheted things up a notch. McCallion suggested Parrish was trying to take credit for a proposed review of Enersource when it was actually a staff idea, and accused her of grandstanding.

“If you agree with the answers (in private), let’s not go through an exercise of making you look good in the eyes of the public because you ask questions and you got the right answer from staff,” McCallion said.

She told Parrish she should only question staff in council about issues she disagreed with.

“Madam Mayor, I thank you very much for the civics lesson,” Parrish responded. “I have been in government for 20 years at various levels. I always asked questions and I will continue to ask questions.

“If we have a system around here whereby I have to check with you before I ask questions, I will do that quite delightfully,” said Parrish.

And so it went for seven more minutes before another councillor finally piped up, saying: “Let’s move on.”

That was when the vote asking staff to begin the process of getting multiple bids for the streetlight maintenance contract was called.

The motion passed unanimously.

E MALAMA KAKOU. To care for All.



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