The MississaugaWatch Sniff Test

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If the answer is not an UNQUALIFIED "Yes!", ask "Why not?" and proceed with extreme caution.


MIRROR: Complete Mississauga Judicial Inquiry Transcripts

Mississauga 2010 Election data: Voter Turnout sorted by Polling Station with Wards sorted by Total Turnout

December 13th, 2010  

As regular readers know, we’ve taken the City of Mississauga’s PDF file of the official election results and converted them into a spreadsheet.

The table we offer today is at least to me, the most important data out of this 2010 Mississauga municipal election —a window into voter turnout.

The City of Mississauga website confirms a City-wide average total voter turnout of 34.34%. In our December 8th, 2010 blog, “Mississauga 2010 Election results. Hazel McCallion: Percentage support sorted by ward and voter turnout sorted by Ward” we provided the actual voter turnout by ward. Ward 10 had the highest voter turnout with 38.46% and Ward 7 the lowest with 28.20%

Here’s that table again for context.

Voter turnout sorted by Ward Total percentage

Ward Registered Ballots Turnout  Ballots   Turnout
       Voters    Cast           for Mayor for Mayor

 10    35503     13656   38.46     13443     37.86
  1    29549     10774   36.46     10584     35.82
  3    37144     13431   36.16     13047     35.13
  6    46022     16554   35.97     16258     35.33
  5    43215     14943   34.58     14484     33.52
  4    38348     13213   34.46     12939     33.74
CITY  417919    143501   34.34    140902     33.72
  8    44830     15391   34.33     15201     33.91
 11    33500     11242   33.56     11059     33.01
  2    32387     10791   33.32     10703     33.05
  9    35501     11684   32.91     11570     32.59
  7    41920     11822   28.20     11614     27.71

This voter turnout table of course, isn’t enough. Just like the City’s 34.34% voter turnout average  is simply the result of Total Ballots Cast divided by Registered Voters, the same is true at the ward level. We’re still just left with averages.

What can be seen and perhaps learned if we also sorted voter turnout in each ward by polling station? That’s what we present here —sorted all 11 wards beginning with Ward 10 which had the highest voter turnout down to Ward 7 with the lowest.

And these data immediately raise questions.

Like Ward 1, Westacres Public School with 40.65% well above the City-wide average versus Ward 1’s  Riverside Public School  with a mere 27.14% voter turnout. Or Ward 3’s  Or Ward 3’s Silverthorn Public School with 40.97% compared to Burnhamthorpe C.C. with 28.34%.

And certainly my special interest because I’m researching the Roots of Youth Violence is Ward 7 with the lowest average voter turnout of 28.20%.

We find that Ward 7 shows Clifton Public School polling station reporting 38.10% voter turnout and a troubling 18.66% at Fairview Public School. And in the same ward, Mary Fix Catholic School with 30.12% voter turnout versus St.Timothy Separate School with 16.95%, even lower than Fairview Public School!

What’s this mean? What’s this voter turnout Small Picture telling us? I can tell you this. No one’s looked at Mississauga elections’ “Small Picture” before.

And as always, should anyone spot an error we’d appreciate being advised. Many thanks!

Mississauga 2010 Municipal Voter Turnout sorted by Polling Station, (with Wards sorted by Total Voter Turnout Ward 10  highest 38.46% to Ward 7 lowest 28.20%)

Ward        Polling Location               Registered  Ballots   Pct.
                                             Voters      Cast   Turnout

 10  0203 St.Edith Stein School               3930       1368    34.81
 10  0206 St.Therese Catholic School          3004       1040    34.62
 10  0207 StAlbert of Jerusalem               2900        994    34.28
 10  0204 StSimon Stock School                2440        811    33.24
 10  0198 StBernard of Clairvaux              2816        925    32.85
 10  0199 McKinnon Public School              1997        654    32.75
 10  0197 Oscar Peterson PublicSchool         2268        735    32.41
 10  0205 Lisgar Middle School                3762       1213    32.24
 10  0201 StFaustina CatholicSchool           3337       1075    32.21
 10  0208 Kindree Public School               2833        879    31.03
 10  0202 Churchill Meadows School            3149        973    30.90
 10  0200 Ruth Thompson Middle School         3067        930    30.32

 10       Voting Day TOTALS                  35503      11597    32.66

 10  0209 Advance Poll Day 1                     0         35
 10  0210 Advance Poll Day 2                     0         34
 10  0211 Ruth Thompson MS-Day3                  0        432
 10  0212 Ruth Thompson MS-Day4                  0        693
 10  0213 Lisgar Middle School-Day3              0        395
 10  0214 Lisgar Middle School-Day4              0        470          

 10       Advance Poll TOTAL                             2059
 10       Pct. Votes Cast at Advance Polls                       15.08

 10       TOTALS                             35503      13656    38.46

  1  0010 Miss Long Term Care                   10          7    70.00
  1  0009 Westacres Public School             2359        959    40.65
  1  0008 ISNA Elementary School              2091        815    38.98
  1  0011 Regency Retirement Res               108         39    36.11
  1  0007 Lakeview Golf Course                3372       1129    33.48
  1  0003 Port Credit SecSchool               4002       1331    33.26
  1  0002 Kenollie Public School              2716        877    32.29
  1  0005 Mississauga SrCentre                3351       1048    31.27
  1  0004 Forest Ave Public School            3355       1039    30.97
  1  0006 Queen of Heaven Sep School          5525       1664    30.12
  1  0001 Riverside Public School             2660        722    27.14

  1       Voting Day TOTALS                  29549       9630    32.59

  1  0012 Advance Poll Day 1                     0         52
  1  0013 Advance Poll Day 2                     0         32
  1  0014 Miss Sr Centre - Day 3                 0        305
  1  0015 Miss Sr Centre - Day 4                 0        247
  1  0016 Port Credit SS - Day 3                 0        246
  1  0017 Port Credit SS - Day 4                 0        262          

  1       Advance Poll TOTAL                             1144
  1       Pct. Votes Cast at Advance Polls                       10.62

  1       TOTALS                             29549      10774    36.46

  3  0048 Westminster Court                    194        123    63.40
  3  0054 Meadowcroft Constitution              32         15    46.88
  3  0050 Beechwood Place                      170         77    45.29
  3  0040 Silverthorn Public School           1821        746    40.97
  3  0042 Burnhamthorpe Public School         2713       1056    38.92
  3  0041 Blessed Teresa of Calcutta          1633        604    36.99
  3  0039 St Thomas More School               3336       1137    34.08
  3  0045 StsMartha & Mary School             4451       1473    33.09
  3  0053 Summerville Pines                    875        287    32.80
  3  0047 John Cabot SecSchool                3162       1024    32.38
  3  0038 Dixie Public School                 3064        968    31.59
  3  0046 St Basil Catholic School            4487       1394    31.07
  3  0037 Brian W Fleming                     3735       1111    29.75
  3  0044 Forest Glen Public School           3542       1046    29.53
  3  0043 Burnhamthorpe C.C.                  3571       1012    28.34
  3  0051 Meadowcroft Bough Beeches             62         17    27.42
  3  0052 Tyndall Nursing Home                 208         49    23.56
  3  0049 Sunrise Senior Living                 88         18    20.45

  3       Voting Day TOTALS                  37144      12157    32.73

  3  0055 Advance Poll Day 1                     0         68
  3  0056 Advance Poll Day 2                     0         60
  3  0057 Burnhamthorpe CC-Day3                  0        290
  3  0058 Burnhamthorpe CC-Day4                  0        261
  3  0059 Teresa of Calcutta-Day3                0        320
  3  0060 Teresa of Calcutta-Day4                0        275          

  3       Advance Poll TOTAL                             1274
  3       Pct. Votes Cast at Advance Polls                        9.49

  3       TOTALS                             37144      13431    36.16

  6  0121 Leisureworld-Streetsville             33         29    87.88
  6  0110 Queenston Drive Pub School          2358        866    36.73
  6  0116 St.Dunstan Catholic School          2499        915    36.61
  6  0109 Springfield Public School           3433       1241    36.15
  6  0111 StDavid of Wales School             4470       1614    36.11
  6  0113 StBernadette School                 4302       1493    34.70
  6  0117 River Grove C.C.                    4552       1465    32.18
  6  0112 Edenrose Public School              3768       1154    30.63
  6  0115 StHerbert Catholic School           3602       1079    29.96
  6  0118 Whitehorn Public School             4275       1258    29.43
  6  0119 St.Valentine Catholic School        4623       1301    28.14
  6  0114 Fallingbrook Middle School          3466        946    27.29
  6  0108 McBride Ave Public School           4468       1198    26.81
  6  0120 Yee Hong Centre                      173         43    24.86

  6       Voting Day TOTALS                  46022      14602    31.73

  6  0122 Advance Poll Day 1                     0        151
  6  0123 Advance Poll Day 2                     0         98
  6  0124 McBride Avenue PS-Day3                 0        433
  6  0125 McBride Avenue PS-Day4                 0        390
  6  0126 River Grove CC - Day 3                 0        405
  6  0127 River Grove CC - Day 4                 0        475          

  6       Advance Poll TOTAL                             1952
  6       Pct. Votes Cast at Advance Polls                       11.79

  6       TOTALS                             46022      16554    35.97

  5  0098 Rec Room- 3580 Etude Dr               51         42    82.35
  5  0100 Ridgewood Court                      168         69    41.07
  5  0092 Marvin Heights Public School        2189        763    34.86
  5  0101 Villa Forum Long Term                332        113    34.04
  5  0094 Brandon Gate Public School          1643        551    33.54
  5  0084 ChamplainTrail Public School        3909       1307    33.44
  5  0089 Frank McKechnie C.C.                5729       1861    32.48
  5  0095 Darcel Ave Senior School            2457        779    31.71
  5  0090 Ridgewood Public School             2352        725    30.82
  5  0086 Fairwind Senior PublicSchool        3386       1035    30.57
  5  0093 StRaphael Catholic School           2103        635    30.19
  5  0085 St.Gertrude Separate School         3364        963    28.63
  5  0088 San Lorenzo Ruiz School             3833       1067    27.84
  5  0097 Dunrankin Dr Public School          3543        975    27.52
  5  0087 StHilary Catholic School            2773        746    26.90
  5  0091 Morning Star Middle School          2333        547    23.45
  5  0096 Malton C.C.                         2915        564    19.35
  5  0099 Malton Village Long Term             135         18    13.33

  5       Voting Day TOTALS                  43215      12760    29.53

  5  0102 Advance Poll Day 1                     0         45
  5  0103 Advance Poll Day 2                     0         58
  5  0104 Ridgewood PS - Day 3                   0        547
  5  0105 Ridgewood PS - Day 4                   0        592
  5  0106 Frank McKechnie CC-Day3                0        404
  5  0107 Frank McKechnie CC-Day4                0        537          

  5       Advance Poll TOTAL                             2183
  5       Pct. Votes Cast at Advance Polls                       14.61

  5       TOTALS                             43215      14943    34.58

  4  0076 Cawthra Gardens Long Term             49         25    51.02
  4  0075 Aspen Grove                          304        125    41.12
  4  0072 The Mansion                          511        201    39.33
  4  0074 Park Mansion                         440        171    38.86
  4  0065 Briarwood Public School             2021        784    38.79
  4  0062 Metropolitan Andrei School          2106        755    35.85
  4  0068 Corpus Christi School               2894        994    34.35
  4  0061 Silver Creek Public School          2896        984    33.98
  4  0066 StCharles Garnier School            3367       1096    32.55
  4  0071 St.Pio of Peitrelcina School        4625       1463    31.63
  4  0069 Huntington Ridge School             3411       1061    31.11
  4  0067 StsPeter & Paul School              3724       1140    30.61
  4  0073 Skymark West Phase 2                 822        242    29.44
  4  0077 Amica at City Centre                1056        309    29.26
  4  0063 Thornwood Public School             2511        719    28.63
  4  0070 StMatthew Catholic School           2915        804    27.58
  4  0064 Mississauga Valley C.C.             4696       1117    23.79

  4       Voting Day TOTALS                  38348      11990    31.27

  4  0078 Advance Poll Day 1                     0        148
  4  0079 Advance Poll Day 2                     0        138
  4  0080 Mississauga Valley CC-Day3             0        381
  4  0081 Mississauga Valley CC-Day4             0        307
  4  0082 Huntington Ridge PS-Day3               0        122
  4  0083 Huntington Ridge PS-Day4               0        127          

  4       Advance Poll TOTAL                             1223
  4       Pct. Votes Cast at Advance Polls                        9.26

  4       TOTALS                             38348      13213    34.46

  8  0165 Living Waters Residence               88         84    95.45
  8  0167 Carmel Heights                        50         42    84.00
  8  0166 South Common Court                   144        109    75.69
  8  0168 Ivan Franko Home                      74         54    72.97
  8  0169 Amica - Erin Mills                   167         81    48.50
  8  0170 Specialty Care-Mississauga            50         21    42.00
  8  0157 StMark Separate School              3988       1545    38.74
  8  0154 King's Masting Public School        2267        792    34.94
  8  0152 StJean Baptiste School              3213       1107    34.45
  8  0158 Pheasant Run Public School          4232       1422    33.60
  8  0153 St.Margaret of Scotland             1898        635    33.46
  8  0163 StRose of Lima School               2316        765    33.03
  8  0160 All Saints Separate School          3242       1064    32.82
  8  0151 Holy Name of Mary College           2026        610    30.11
  8  0159 Ashgrove Public School              2752        828    30.09
  8  0155 Christ the King School              4499       1307    29.05
  8  0162 Credit Valley Public School         3339        962    28.81
  8  0156 South Common C.C.                   4772       1286    26.95
  8  0161 Artesian Drive Public School        2921        775    26.53
  8  0150 Oakridge Public School              2622        584    22.27
  8  0171 Sunrise Senior Living                 62         13    20.97
  8  0164 Credit Valley Hospital                14          2    14.29
  8  0172 University of Toronto                 94          8     8.51

  8       Voting Day TOTALS                  44830      14096    31.44

  8  0173 Advance Poll Day 1                     0         94
  8  0174 Advance Poll Day 2                     0         65
  8  0175 South Common CC - Day 3                0        414
  8  0176 South Common CC - Day 4                0        323
  8  0177 Pheasant Run PS - Day 3                0        230
  8  0178 Pheasant Run PS - Day 4                0        169          

  8       Advance Poll TOTAL                             1295
  8       Pct. Votes Cast at Advance Polls                        8.41

  8       TOTALS                             44830      15391    34.33

 11  0225 Extendicare Mississauga               25         28   112.00
 11  0216 Rec Room-4 Caroline Street           715        289    40.42
 11  0217 Streetsville SecSchool              2552        977    38.28
 11  0219 Ray Underhill Public School         3862       1331    34.46
 11  0218 Vista Heights Public School         2261        712    31.49
 11  0224 Derry West Village School           3427       1052    30.70
 11  0221 StVeronica CatholicSchool           2921        845    28.93
 11  0223 Levi Creek Public School            3684       1061    28.80
 11  0220 Britannia Public School             6126       1709    27.90
 11  0222 David Leeder Middle School          4650       1277    27.46
 11  0215 Vic Johnston C.C.                   3277        813    24.81

 11       Voting Day TOTALS                  33500      10094    30.13

 11  0226 Advance Poll Day 1                     0         55
 11  0227 Advance Poll Day 2                     0         38
 11  0228 Ray Underhill PS-Day3                  0        263
 11  0229 Ray Underhill PS-Day4                  0        295
 11  0230 David Leeder MS-Day3                   0        219
 11  0231 David Leeder MS-Day4                   0        278          

 11       Advance Poll TOTAL                             1148
 11       Pct. Votes Cast at Advance Polls                       10.21

 11       TOTALS                             33500      11242    33.56

  2  0027 Erin Mills Lodge 72                   69     95.83
  2  0030 Wawel Villa      78                   37     47.44
  2  0029 Sheridan Villa   178                  71     39.89
  2  0025 St Francis of Assisi                2875       1104    38.40
  2  0022 Lorne Park Public School            3100       1013    32.68
  2  0018 Clarkson Public School              4144       1315    31.73
  2  0021 Lorne Park SecSchool                2688        795    29.58
  2  0026 Sheridan Park Public School         2733        794    29.05
  2  0020 StLuke Catholic School              4061       1104    27.19
  2  0023 Clarkson C.C.                       4321       1167    27.01
  2  0019 Owenwood Public School              4148       1111    26.78
  2  0024 StHelen Separate School             3829        902    23.56
  2  0028 The Wenleigh                         160         25    15.63

  2       Voting Day TOTALS                  32387       9507    29.35

  2  0031 Advance Poll Day 1                     0         48
  2  0032 Advance Poll Day 2                     0         33
  2  0033 Clarkson CC - Day 3                    0        279
  2  0034 Clarkson CC - Day 4                    0        215
  2  0035 Lorne Park SS - Day 3                  0        372
  2  0036 Lorne Park SS - Day 4                  0        337          

  2       Advance Poll TOTAL                             1284
  2       Pct. Votes Cast at Advance Polls                       11.90

  2       TOTALS                             32387      10791    33.32

  9  0188 Heritage Glen                         92        155   168.48
  9  0190 Edenwood Seniors Village              75         52    69.33
  9  0182 Miller's Grove Public School        3214       1139    35.44
  9  0183 Settler's Green PublicSchool        4659       1459    31.32
  9  0186 Shelter Bay Public School           3894       1166    29.94
  9  0184 St.John of the Cross School         3669       1096    29.87
  9  0187 StRichard Separate School           4706       1388    29.49
  9  0180 Castlebridge Public School          3386        924    27.29
  9  0185 Meadowvale C.C.                     4345       1164    26.79
  9  0181 Our Lady of Mercy School            2286        593    25.94
  9  0179 Erin Meadows C.C.                   5012       1248    24.90
  9  0189 Village of Erin Meadows              163         23    14.11

  9       Voting Day TOTALS                  35501      10407    29.31

  9  0191 Advance Poll Day 1                     0         47
  9  0192 Advance Poll Day 2                     0         42
  9  0193 Erin Meadows CC - Day 3                0        346
  9  0194 Erin Meadows CC - Day 4                0        282
  9  0195 Meadowvale CC - Day 3                  0        301
  9  0196 Meadowvale CC - Day 4                  0        259          

  9       Advance Poll TOTAL                             1277
  9       Pct. Votes Cast at Advance Polls                       10.93

  9       TOTALS                             35501      11684    32.91

  7  0141 Trillium Health Centre                 4          6   150.00
  7  0140 Leisureworld-Mississauga              67         37    55.22
  7  0143 Heritage House                        47         22    46.81
  7  0129 Clifton Public School               2383        908    38.10
  7  0128 Munden Park Public School           2784        883    31.72
  7  0134 Huron Park C.C.                     5332       1636    30.68
  7  0133 Mary Fix Catholic School            2706        815    30.12
  7  0132 Floradale Public School             3350        971    28.99
  7  0136 StPhilip Catholic School            4558       1188    26.06
  7  0139 King Garden Retirement               435        107    24.60
  7  0135 FrDaniel Zanon School               5736       1382    24.09
  7  0131 St.Catherine ofSienna School        3801        872    22.94
  7  0138 Fairview Public School              2760        515    18.66
  7  0137 Bishop Scalabrini School            5335        994    18.63
  7  0130 St.Timothy Separate School          2531        429    16.95
  7  0142 Extendicare                           91         13    14.29

  7       Voting Day TOTALS                  41920      10778    25.71

  7  0144 Advance Poll Day 1                     0        125
  7  0145 Advance Poll Day 2                     0        183
  7  0146 St Timothy SS - Day 3                  0        187
  7  0147 St Timothy SS - Day 4                  0        150
  7  0148 Huron Park CC - Day 3                  0        188
  7  0149 Huron Park CC - Day 4                  0        211          

  7       Advance Poll TOTAL                             1044
  7       Pct. Votes Cast at Advance Polls                        8.83

  7       TOTALS                             41920      11822    28.20

Signed,
MISSISSAUGAWATCH

E MALAMA KAKOU. To care for All.

ONTARIO MUNICIPALITIES: A MAJOR (unexplored) ROOT OF YOUTH VIOLENCE

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

BACKGROUND (repeated from other blog entries)

On November 17th we reported the most preliminary of preliminary findings in the Blog, “Mississauga News quotes Councillors: VOTERS’ LIST WAS A “MESS”. Why didn’t the City check its own Official Election Results?!” That Blog provided insight into how Hazel McCallion’s 107,643 votes were distributed both by ward and polling stations. These data however don’t necessarily show support for McCallion because it was possible for her to receive the highest number of votes in a polling station where she only got 40-50% of Mayor’s ballots cast—a plurality, in other words.

Our November 18th Blog, “Spreadsheet into percentage of Hazel McCallion’s votes by Mississauga polling stations provides unique insights presented McCallion’s support by polling station based on the simple equation “Votes for Hazel McCallion” divided by “Total Ballots Cast for Mayor”. Example. There are 10 ballets cast for Mayor. 8 were for Hazel McCallion. 8/10 or 80% support at that polling station.

Our November 19th Blog, “Mississauga Ward 5 percentages showing support for incumbents Mayor Hazel McCallion and Councillor Eve Adams by polling stations” focused only on Ward 5 polling station results showing the percentage support for both incumbents Mayor Hazel McCallion and Councillor Eve Adams. We decided to report on Ward 5 first because Malton Community Centre is one of our primary Roots of Youth Violence research sites.

Our November 21st, 2010 Blog, “What effect the “robocall”? Mississauga Ward 6 percentages showing support for Mayor Hazel McCallion, Carolyn Parrish and Ron Starr by polling stations” provided a Carolyn Parrish/Ron Starr breakdown. For context we also did the breakdown for Advanced Polls versus Voting Day to see if Hazel McCallion’s robocall had any effect.

As a result of the news that Mississauga Council had ordered a recount of Ward 1, we decided to post our spreadsheet for that ward next. In the November 24 blog, “Mississauga Councillor Calls for Ward 1 Recount –and STATS for Ward 1 Advanced Polls versus Voting Day”, we confirmed that bottomline, Councillor Corbasson was ahead in the Advanced Polls occurring Ocober 14-15th and lost support on Voting Day. We’re convinced that Jim Tovey’s flyer circulated Saturday, two days before Voting Day had the effect intended.

WHAT WE’VE LEARNED

We realize now that our November 18th Blog, “Spreadsheet into percentage of Hazel McCallion’s votes by Mississauga polling stations provides unique insights did not provide a complete picture. For one thing, we presented no totals. Another, back then we didn’t understand the importance of comparing the results of Advanced Polls vs Voting Day to gauge what effect the Shipp-McCallion team’s “over-sized cheque” flyers might have had.

For context, we provide the actual voter turnout by Ward sorted by highest to lowest. Please see column “Turnout“. Note City-wide voter turnout was 34.34% (* checked against City’s results at www.mississauga.ca).

And to repeat, as always, should anyone spot an error we’d appreciate being advised. Many thanks!

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