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The McCallion Letters

Ward 5 By-Election results: In relatively-affluent “Britannia” Crombie prevailed but Malton clearly chose Simmer Kaur as their councillor!

September 23rd, 2011  

Today we took the City of Mississauga’s Official Election Results Detailed Poll by Poll Report (PDF) and converted it to our own spreadsheet. We then separated the polling stations into Malton and Non-Malton (which includes the Ward 5 area, Britannia).

And this is the picture.

Bonnie Crombie won the Ward 5 By-Election but it was only because the more populous (22,997 registered voters) and affluent south-west part of Ward 5 votes prevailed. Malton, with 19,707 registered voters clearly chose Simmer Kaur as their councillor! Malton cast 941 votes for Kaur compared to just 802 for Crombie.

  Polling Location              Registered Ballots  Voter   Voter   Peter  Peter   Bonnie   Bonnie  Simmer  Simmer  Carolyn  Carolyn
                                  Voters    Cast   Turnout Turnout  ADAMS  ADAMS  CROMBIE  CROMBIE   KAUR    KAUR   PARRISH  PARRISH
                                                      %     % 2010           %                %                %                %

0001 Champlain Trail PS            3908      810    20.7%   33.44%   104   12.84%    314    38.77%     49    6.05%     140    17.28%
0002 St. Gertrude SS               3330      677    20.3%   28.63%    76   11.23%    209    30.87%     62    9.16%     148    21.86%
0003 Fairwind Senior PS            3444      805    23.4%   30.57%    98   12.17%    214    26.58%     59    7.33%     211    26.21%
0004 St. Hilary CS                 2708      498    18.4%   26.90%    52   10.44%    129    25.90%     25    5.02%     123    24.70%
0005 San Lorenzo Ruiz School       3791      712    18.8%   27.84%   150   21.07%    169    23.74%     48    6.74%     113    15.87%
0006 Frank McKechnie C.C.          5816     1257    21.6%   32.48%   306   24.34%    279    22.20%     68    5.41%     229    18.22%

NON-MALTON Subtotals              22997     4759    20.7%            786   16.52%   1314    27.61%    311    6.53%     964    20.26%

0007 Ridgewood PS                  2306      626    27.1%   30.82%    34    5.43%     95    15.18%    109   17.41%     108    17.25%
0008 Morning Star MS               2263      441    19.5%   23.45%    32    7.26%     92    20.86%     99   22.45%      54    12.24%
0009 Marvin Heights PS             2158      597    27.7%   34.86%    35    5.86%    127    21.27%    181   30.32%      59     9.88%
0010 St. Raphael CS                2067      461    22.3%   30.19%    29    6.29%     59    12.80%    105   22.78%      45     9.76%
0011 Brandon Gate PS               1614      400    24.8%   33.54%    29    7.25%    102    25.50%     57   14.25%      66    16.50%
0012 Darcel Ave SS                 2439      605    24.8%   31.71%    52    8.60%    107    17.69%    124   20.50%     113    18.68%
0013 Malton C.C.                   2849      447    15.7%   19.35%    42    9.40%     79    17.67%     90   20.13%      72    16.11%
0014 Dunrankin Drive PS            3440      752    21.9%   27.52%    46    6.12%    120    15.96%    169   22.47%     141    18.75%
0015 Peel Regional Housing Rec Rm    51       38    74.5%   82.35%     2    5.26%      0     0.00%      0    0.00%      10    26.32%
0016 Malton Village LT Care         134       17    12.7%   13.33%     1    5.88%      0     0.00%      0    0.00%       1     5.88%
0017 Ridgewood Court                153       61    39.9%   41.07%     1    1.64%      6     9.84%      6    9.84%       8    13.11%
0018 Villa Forum LT Care            233       84    36.1%   34.04%    15   17.86%     15    17.86%      1    1.19%       9    10.71%

MALTON Subtotals                  19707     4529    23.0%            318    7.02%    802    17.71%    941   20.78%     686    15.15%

0019 St.Gertrude - Day 1              0      304                      36   11.84%     59    19.41%     13    4.28%     124    40.79%
0020 St.Gertrude - Day 2              0      352                      47   13.35%     78    22.16%     25    7.10%     139    39.49%
0021 Frank McKechnie - Day 1          0      250                      44   17.60%     56    22.40%     14    5.60%      68    27.20%
0022 Frank McKechnie - Day 2          0      352                      65   18.47%     75    21.31%     10    2.84%      97    27.56%

NON-MALTON Subtotals                        1258                     192   15.26%    268    21.30%     62    4.93%     428    34.02%

0023 Ridgewood PS - Day 1             0      282                      10    3.55%     33    11.70%     89   31.56%      59    20.92%
0024 Ridgewood PS - Day 2             0      240                      14    5.83%     25    10.42%     79   32.92%      46    19.17%
0025 Darcel Avenue - Day 1            0      237                      10    4.22%     29    12.24%    100   42.19%      19     8.02%
0026 Darcel Avenue - Day 2            0      205                      17    8.29%      8     3.90%     80   39.02%      36    17.56%

MALTON Subtotals                             964                      51    5.29%     95     9.85%    348   36.10%     160    16.60%

TOTAL                             42704    11510    27.0%   34.58%  1347   11.70%   2479    21.54%   1662   14.44%    2238    19.44%

 

It would seem that my September 19, 2011 predictions were also dead-on. In my report from Frank McKechnie polling station, I suggested that it would “likely will play an important role in tonight’s results.” Look at the spreadsheet —1,257 ballots cast. Huge.

And while Britannia lavished 1,314 and 964 votes on Bonnie Crombie and Carolyn Parrish respectively, Simmer Kaur managed just 311. Even Peter Adams played better in the relatively-affluent “Britannia” than Kaur: 786 votes.

Scan the results and you can see that Malton doesn’t have Simmer Kaur as their councillor because Britannia went with Crombie.

No surprise that voter turnout was lower than the October 25, 2010 city-wide election. All polling stations reported fewer votes. The rain didn’t help.

Reporting from Malton Community Centre on Monday, I’d stated that, “I predict the lowest voter turnout if it’s anything like it was in October 2010.” It was, with 15.7% compared to 19.35% in October 2010. [Yes, there was a polling station with a lower voter turnout of 12.7% but that’s the Malton Village Long Term Care facility.]

The only other thing that stands out and needs your attention is this: In the Advanced Polls, Carolyn Parrish received the most votes from the Britannia/non-Malton) area and once again Malton’s Advanced Polls bestowed Simmer Kaur with the most votes.

So what happened between the Advanced Polls and Voting Day?

Can you say “last day robocall”?…

Bonnie Crombie
Bonnie_Crombie

10% of all Ward 5 Voters dialed in for my Tele TownHall meeting last night. We’ll see tonight if it had any impact on their voting decision

19 Sep

But allow me to share Ms. Crombie’s most offensive Tweet:

Bonnie Crombie
Bonnie_Crombie

The first day of my new career fighting for the residents of Ward 5!

22 Sep

All Ward 5 residents (but especially Malton) need to know that prior to seeking a “new career” in politics, Crombie was a public affairs consultant. Allow me this example.

From the Toronto Star article, Ex-MP and new Mississauga councillor Bonnie Crombie reflects on election win:

Q: Your husband, Brian, a close friend of the mayor, was found by the Securities and Exchange Commission in the U.S. to have misled Biovail investors while he was an executive, and was fined by the Ontario Securities Commission here. A lot of people in Mississauga know about that. How do you respond to those concerned about your husband’s past?

A: First of all, it’s my name on the ballot, not my husband’s. He had an issue in his business career; perhaps an error in judgment was made, but we’ve moved past it. The only people that bring this up are my detractors. I’m very, very proud of my husband and his career.

On the bright side, Ron Starr’s lookin’ pretty good to me right now.

Signed,

MISSISSAUGAWATCH

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